USD/JPY (123.601)
- Support Levels: 123.17, 122.35, 121.55
- Resistance Levels: 124.10, 125.10, 125.92
- Trade Strategies: Stand Aside
The USD/JPY climb higher stalled below the pivot located at ¥124. As you can see on the below daily MT 4 chart, this Forex market formed a dark cloud cover candlestick and the Dollar’s attempt to recover ended.
Technical Analysis
Today’s technical analysis notes the resistance pivot at ¥124. A break above this level sees near term technical resistance lining up at 124.10. A daily close above this technical resistance level challenges the next technical resistance line at 125.10. The alternative technical analysis, should the USD/JPY continue to move lower, notes technical support lining up at 123.17. A break below this technical support level challenges the technical support at 122.35.
Trade Strategy
A couple of things to note. First off, the Fed’s dovish Fed Statement last week which indicated that there could be no normalization of monetary policy in September, weakened the Dollar. The Fed will raise rates this year, question is when. Chances are still pretty good of two 25 basis point hikes before January. Also, there is Greece. The Greek drama just will not end. Greece “no deal” to the creditors yesterday. This will cause volatility in the financial markets today. From a technical analysis, the USD/JPY is trading too close to a technical resistance level to take up a long USD trade. Timing is off from a risk to reward perspective for that move. There are also no clear cut bearish reversal signs. This means placing a long JPY (short USD) trade is premature at this time. With all the event risk volatility, coupled with what I am seeing on my charts, I will opt to stand aside for now. I will monitor my charts, as well as the news, waiting for a better trade opportunity to come along.