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US Dollar Falls within Descending Wedge

US dollar

Looking at the benchmark USD/CAD Forex market and above four (4) hour MT 4 price chart, the US dollar (USD) continues to inch lower within a falling wedge channel. The greenback is broadly on the back foot as sentiment across the financial markets is generally in a good spot.

Once this sentiment changes, as the global coronavirus pandemic (Covid-19) is spreading out of control stateside, Congress is unable to pass a fiscal stimulus package and there is a looming deadline to pass a Federal Budget, this sentiment should change thus supporting the safe haven US dollar.

Senate Republicans and Democrats cannot seem to agree on a new coronavirus fiscal aid package. The Republicans prefer an aid package of around $500 billion and the Democrats want a fiscal aid package of $1.3 trillion.

The Senate Democrats tried to meet the GOP party by sending a smaller $900 billion aid bill but that was turned down and considered a non-starter by GOP Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. To make matters even more complicated, this deeply divided and partisan government must pass a budget on 11 December or face a federal government shutdown.

Daily US Dollar Technical Analysis (USD/CAD)                                                 

Looking at price action on the above MT 4 chart, the USD/CAD currency exchange rate has fallen through the support levels at 1.1920 as the US dollar now looks to challenge the downside barrier that is in play at 1.29.

A daily close below 1.29 brings the next layer of technical support at the October 2018 low price point into play. This level is at the key and psychological support barrier at 1.28. While below 1.29, this is a distinct possibility.

On the upside, a daily close above the falling wedge channel will open the door to challenge the 30 November high price point and psychological level at 1.30 into focus. The 25 November high price point and 18 November low price point at 1.3030 would then come into play.

About David Frank

David has his MA and PhD in Economics. He is a technical analyst who has been trading in the Forex world for over a decade. As an analyst and trader, David believes in the big picture by blending together technical analysis with the fundamentals behind the scenes in the Forex and Bond markets. David’s trading strategy is unique. He blends an understanding of fundamental and macroeconomics with technical analysis to offer a unique view into Forex. He applies several strategies including carry long positions, to take advantage of high yields in non-volatile markets, as well as using quicker, chart related analysis for day trading.

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