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The Kiwi Dollar Looks to Fall Lower

Points to consider in the Kiwi Forex market:

  • A shooting star candlestick is forming hinting at a move lower with the New Zealand Dollar.
  • No confirmation as of yet to pull the trigger on a short NZD sale.
  • Trade strategy: Stand aside

The NZD/USD Forex market is forming a shooting star candlestick after testing the rising trend line. This is a trend defining trend line. Please see the below daily MT 4 chart. A turn back lower would mean the last two weeks were corrective and the longer-term bearish trend is reestablishing itself.

kiwi
NZD/USD Chart

Kiwi Technical Analysis

Let’s discuss today’s daily NZD/USD technical analysis. There is a technical support layer lining up at 0.7135. A daily close below this first downside barrier challenges the next technical support that lines up at 0.7072. The alternative New Zealand Dollar technical analysis, notes the rising trend line resistance level. This was a former support level and it lines up at 0.7188. A break above this first upside barrier challenges the next technical resistance layer that lines up at 0.7237.

Trade Strategy

The shooting star candlestick, by itself, is not strong enough to pull a trigger on a short NZD sale. We need further confirmation that the bearish trend is back in play. Keeping that in mind, I will opt to stand aside in the Kiwi Dollar Forex market. For now, I will remain flat waiting on a better short NZD sale opportunity to come along.

There is also upcoming event risk with next week’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) monetary policy decision. The Fed is likely to raise interest by at least 25 basis points at that time. This is another cause to remain cautious as there could be upcoming market volatility. If the Fed raises interest rates,  the US Dollar rally is likely to gain strength once again.

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