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EUR/JPY – The Euro Moves Lower as the Downtrend Resumes

EUR/JPY (136.116)

Three points to consider

  • Euro breaks through the 2 month support
  • Risk to reward argues against short trade right now
  • Trade Strategy: Stand Aside

The EUR/JPY Forex market is getting ready to resume its down trend. Prices have now broken through the two month support trend line which have guided prices since early July. This particular Forex pair has lagged behind other yen pairs as both currencies saw benefit from a change in risk aversion. Some catch up weakness is beginning to hit this market. Please refer to the below EUR/JPY daily MT 4 chart for today’s technical analysis.

Daily Chart
Daily Chart

Technical Analysis

Let’s now look into today’s daily EUR/JPY technical analysis. Sellers are eying the technical support at the end of a congestion area this area runs from 134.97 to 135.10. A daily close below this level will challenge the support lining up at 134.19. The alternative EUR/JPY technical analysis, should the euro push higher thus supporting this Forex market, notes technical resistance at 136.02. This is the trend line resistance. A break above this targets a congestion zone starting at the July 10 high. This region runs from 136.95 to 137.15.

Trade Strategy

Now let’s look at today’s EUR/JPY trade strategy. A short trade is very tempting. However risk to reward analysis argues against this trade. Why? The trading range is smaller the than the average trading range (ATR) this means a short trade would expose me to more risk than reward. With this in mind, I will opt to stand aside and monitor my charts for a better short euro trade to come along in line with my overall bearish euro outlook. For today, I am flat in the EUR/JPY Forex market.

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