USD/CHF Technical Analysis – February 16 2015

The USD/CHF pair tried to rally during the course of the session on Friday, but as you can see we continue to meander around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the massive selloff triggered by Swiss National Bank actions several weeks ago. With that being the case, I feel that the market should continue to sell off over the longer term, but we do not have any type of setup at the moment. Just because we are at an area that should be a good entry point, doesn’t mean that it will be. Ultimately, I think that a couple of different things can happen, both of which would have me selling this market.

We can either break down from here, clearing below the 0.92 handle, or then head to the 0.90 handle after that. Ultimately, the market will fall even farther than that, perhaps heading down to the 0.88 level next. The other option of course is that we break higher, but I think at that point in time we will more than likely see a significant amount of resistance at the 0.95 handle. That of course is previous support, and should now be resistance. On top of that, it is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which of course is the so-called “Golden mean” of trading. Either way, I am a seller of this pair and it will either be the breakdown or a resistive looking candle in the region of the 0.95 level that has me selling. Looking at wrong, the US dollar is fairly strong, but the Swiss franc is even stronger.