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The US Dollar Holds After Release of FOMC Minutes

Points to consider with the US Dollar market:

  • Short term support held then we saw the Dollar bounce higher after the FOMC minutes were released.
  • The USD remains on top of the other G-10 currencies
  • Trade strategy: Buy on dips

dollarstack1After the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) minutes were released yesterday afternoon and economic data from October was steady and strong, the US Dollar held near term support and moved higher. The FOMC minutes showed that there was a “live possibility” of a rate hike in December on the heels of a very solid non-farm payroll (NFP) report this month. Only a dismal NFP for November will hold the US Federal Reserve from hiking rrates and starting to normalize monetary policy next month.

Right now the US Dollar is only a mere 35 points from its 2015 high. The Dollar is also above multiple layers of key technical support levels. This keeps the possibility of hitting multi-year highs in play. A comparative market that has aligned with the Dollar is the Unites States Treasury’s 2 year yield. This market tracks reactions to short term economic policy. The yield has remained relatively smooth which indicates the market will accept multiple rate hikes over the next couple of years without shaking the financial markets up.

Right now, immediate technical support is lining up at 12,128. With the market unable to close below this level indicates Dollar strength. A move above the March 13th closing is the trend line from the October 15 low at 12,012. This is also the November 3 range low. The trend line resistance level, as well as weekly pivot point, is near 12,161/62. A break above this technical level will challenge the year to date high at 12,220 and then the pivot at 12,245.

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