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Dollar Takes a Hit as Data Misses

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The U.S. dollar fell across the board against its main G-`10 Forex trade partners during the Asian trade session as the dollar extended losses from overnight.

Traders are reacting to a surprise contraction for September’s retail sales data out of the United States.

This miss is increasing trader bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates for a third month in a row when they meet at the end of the month. Trade tensions are also sending capital into safe haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc.

The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency in a basket against six other Forex units, lost 0.1 percent overnight to trade at 98.188.

The USD/JPY currency exchange rate slipped 0.1 percent and the USD/CHF Forex market was down 0.18 percent.

The British pound is trading near a five month high despite a slew of confusing headlines concerning Brexit. Traders are not sure a deal between the United Kingdom and the European Union is close or not so close.

The GBP/USD currency exchange rate was up 0.27 percent.

Dollar Traders Digest Dismal U.S. Retail Sales Data

On Wednesday, the United States released retail sales data for the month of September. This number contracted for the first time in seven months heightening concerns that the world’s largest economy is slowing.

Retail sales contracted by 0.3 percent from the print in August. The U.S. Commerce Department did revise the August number up to 0.6 percent. Economists and market expectations were for a 0.3 percent gain for September.

The Control Group subset, which is supposedly more reliable, came in fairly unchanged for the month. However, this also missed expectations for growing at 0.3 percent. The subset excludes food services, car dealers, building materials stores and gasoline sales.

Traders are also worried about a trade deal between China and the United States, as tensions, once again, mount between the two nations over Hong Kong. Initial reports of a possible Phase One trade deal initially boosted market sentiment. However, a lack of details and contradictory remarks have dampened trader sentiment.

About David Frank

David has his MA and PhD in Economics. He is a technical analyst who has been trading in the Forex world for over a decade. As an analyst and trader, David believes in the big picture by blending together technical analysis with the fundamentals behind the scenes in the Forex and Bond markets. David’s trading strategy is unique. He blends an understanding of fundamental and macroeconomics with technical analysis to offer a unique view into Forex. He applies several strategies including carry long positions, to take advantage of high yields in non-volatile markets, as well as using quicker, chart related analysis for day trading.

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