The New Zealand, or Kiwi, Forex market (NZD/USD) moved higher this morning as well as against its major G-20 trading partners. This comes after July’s trade numbers crossed the wires this morning. All numbers are in Kiwi dollar terms.
New Zealand’s monthly trade surplus came in at $85 million. It was forecasted to come in with a deficit of $200 million. This was the first surplus in July since 2012 and only the eleventh one since 1960.
The annual reading showed the deficit continuing to narrow from –$3649 million to –$3213 million. Economists were expecting it to shrink at a much slower pace (-$3507 million). This is the narrowest trade deficit since December 2016 and the smallest so far in 2016.
While exports fell to $4.63 billion from $4.70 billion, the decline was also slower than what was estimated at $4.42 billion. Also, exports rose 17 percent annually. This is according to Statistics New Zealand. The rise was led by values across commodities such as milk powder, butter and cheese.
The Kiwi still Looks at the RBNZ
New Zealand’s sold trade data came the day after the government downgraded its economic growth and budget surplus projections. This was just ahead of a general election. This is going to be seen as limiting the scope for Reserve Bank of New Zealand tightening.
Today, the trade statistics seemed to help abate some prior concerns. As the World Bank has previously stated, merchandise trade accounts for about 37.7 percent of New Zealand’s gross domestic product. Continued improvements in today’s trade data might make yesterday’s government forecasts less intimidating as far as Kiwi dollar traders are concerned, which could account for today’s support.