This morning, the Kiwi dollar (NZD/USD) briefly surged then erased those gains as New Zealand released solid trade data. Their monthly trade surplus, in New Zealand dollar (NZD) terms, increased from $74 million in May to $242 million in June. This was well above estimates of $150 million. The annual reading showed that their deficit narrowed from -$3796 million to -$3661 million. This was smaller than the -$3680 million that was forecasted by analysts.
Even though Kiwi Forex traders saw that export growth fell $4.70 billion from $4.92 billion, a decline that was less than what estimated at $4.60 billion. In addition, annual export growth rose, as well, from 7.9 percent to 10.7 percent. The same was also true for imports. Goods bought from foreigners printed at $4.46 billion. This was up from $4.84 billion. It was also higher than the $4.40 billion that was forecasted.
The Kiwi Dollar follows the RBNZ
Despite the stronger than expected trade balance figures, the data did little to boost near-term Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate hike bets. RBNZ policymakers remain focused on inflation. Earlier today, the RBNZ Assistant Governor McDermott stated this fact in a speech. He said that inflation pressures appear to remain “relatively moderate.” Further, changes to a single metric is unlikely to alter the RBNZ’s overall CPI outlook for any time period.
The data was supportive of what the country’s Finance Minister Steven Joyce said last week. The Kiwi rallied. Mr. Joyce highlighted the strength of the New Zealand economy. He stated that the export market is robust despite the NZD’s current appreciation.
It should also be noted that the New Zealand Dollar is a sentiment risk currency. Traders are also following the ongoing US based political drama between President Donald Trump, Attorney General Jeff Sessions and the ongoing Russian scandal.