Keqiang index: China’s GDP may have climbed just 5% in April-June

Keqiang index: China's GDP may have climbed just 5% in April-June

TOKYO — China’s real gross domestic product growth likely came to only 5% or so in the April-June quarter, well below the 7% shown in official data, according to the Japan Center for Economic Research.

     The think tank looked at railway freight, electric power generation and growth in bank lending. These indicators, reportedly used by Premier Li Keqiang for economic analysis while he was Communist Party chief in Liaoning Province, are considered by many to provide a more accurate picture of China’s real economy than do official statistics.

     An index composed of these three indicators put China’s real GDP growth at 4.8% to 6.5%, below the 7% reported by China’s statistics bureau. Railway freight declined about 10% on the year and growth in power generation slackened, dragging down the calculated economic growth rate.

     The think tank’s estimate had not differed significantly from the government’s GDP growth data until around summer 2013, when it came in below the official figure. The gap has been widening since.

     President Xi Jinping has repeatedly expressed confidence that China can achieve the government’s growth target of around 7%. Financial markets increasingly believe the economy has slowed more than expected and suspect that Beijing may be fudging the numbers.

(Nikkei)

Keqiang index: China's GDP may have climbed just 5% in April-June