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Gold Futures could Range Trade ahead of the NFP


The widely traded spot gold futures contract spiked higher on Friday. This upswing followed hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole economic symposium.

Mr. Powell said that there was a good case to be made for reducing monthly asset purchases. However, improvement must still be made in the labor market and the recent spike in inflation is transitory. There are already signs inflation is waning in the United States.

This week’s labor data, out of the U.S. will be key. On Friday the monthly non-farm payroll (NFP) report will be published along with the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings and their labor participation rate.

Today, the United States will publish monthly pending home sales numbers. The Dallas Federal Reserve will release their monthly manufacturing index. The European Union and Germany will publish monthly consumer price index numbers and the euro area will release monthly business and consumer sentiment indices. The United Kingdom has no data scheduled for publication.

Daily Gold Technical Analysis (XAU/USD)

Looking at the above daily spot gold futures chart (XAU/USD), the 14 day relative strength index (RSI) has moved towards sixty (60). This could be a good sign for the dollar bulls. However, technical indicators are a bit overbought.

On the upside, immediate technical resistance lines up at $1,830 with $1,845 being the next upside level. On the downside, the one hundred and two hundred (100, 200) day simple moving averages converge at $1,810 per ounce.

A daily close below $1,810 opens the door to challenge the key psychological downside barrier at $1,800 per ounce. This was a former upside barrier capping gains. The next layer of technical support lines up at $1,780 per ounce.

We could see price drifting this week as the yellow metal waits on the key non-farm payroll report. The U.S. economy is expected to add 665,000 new jobs in August.

About David Frank

David has his MA and PhD in Economics. He is a technical analyst who has been trading in the Forex world for over a decade. As an analyst and trader, David believes in the big picture by blending together technical analysis with the fundamentals behind the scenes in the Forex and Bond markets. David’s trading strategy is unique. He blends an understanding of fundamental and macroeconomics with technical analysis to offer a unique view into Forex. He applies several strategies including carry long positions, to take advantage of high yields in non-volatile markets, as well as using quicker, chart related analysis for day trading.

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