Forex Marketz Daily Forex News – Fully Markets Update
The EUR/USD pair has been a bit choppy over the last several weeks, but as you can see the one common theme has been that the 1.25 level has offered a bit of resistance. Quite frankly, I believe that there is resistance all the way to the 1.26 level in the short-term, and on the longer-term I look at the yellow box as the “ceiling” in this pair. After all, if we can get above the 1.30 level at that point in time I would anticipate that the market would have changed trends yet again.
However, I believe that over the course of the next week or two, we will more than likely see consolidation as we head into the Christmas holiday. Even if we did rise above the 1.26 area, I would anticipate the selling opportunities to present themselves yet again somewhere closer to the 1.28 handle. This is the possibility, based upon the fact that liquidity will be very low during this time.
I believe that we will essentially make what is known as a “round-trip” as far as the larger move is concerned. The uptrend started near the 1.2050 level and extended all the way to the 1.40 handle. Now that we have broken below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at the 1.28 handle, I believe that it’s only a matter of time before we go back to where we started. It would certainly make sense, as the US dollar is without a doubt the strongest currency out there, but On Top of That the European Central Bank is almost undoubtedly going to have to loosen monetary policy.
With that being said, I look at rallies as essentially showing “value” in the US dollar, giving us selling opportunities again and again. I believe it’s only a matter of time before we do break down but I recognize that the occasional rally that comes during this time your can be quite vicious. Nonetheless, at this point time I have absolutely no interest in buying this pair even though it certainly looks a bit overextended to the downside at the moment.
