Looking at the benchmark EUR/USD currency exchange rate on the above four (4) hour MT 4 price action chart, the euro currency needs a daily close shove 1.22 in order to defend the current uptrend from the fifty (50) hour simple moving average (SMA).
A sustained break above 1.22 will also negate a possible bearish head and shoulders pattern that the euro currency (EUR) is trying to form on the four hour EUR/USD chart. If this happens, traders could take aim at the recent high price point at 1.2350.
Today’s economic calendar is particularly heavy heading into the weekend. The euro area is publishing a number of monthly flash purchasing managers’ indices (PMI). Germany, France and the Eurozone will all release their monthly flash PMIs.
They are also releasing their monthly flash manufacturing purchasing managers’ indices. The United States is also publishing their monthly flash services and manufacturing purchasing managers’ indices as is the United Kingdom.
These events should bring some volatility to the Forex markets including the euro currency and the U.S. dollar (USD). In other headlines, the United States is looking to extend the nuclear arms proliferation treaty with Russia by five years. The U.S has also rejoined the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Paris Climate Accords.
Daily Euro Currency Technical Analysis (EUR/USD)
Looking at price action, the EUR/USD Forex market seems to be running out of gas near 1.2180. A move lower could see a challenge of the neckline support of the above mentioned head and shoulders pattern. The neckline support lines up at 1.2050. A daily close below this level brings the euro bears back into the picture.
On the flip side, a daily close above the key psychological level of 1.22 is needed to keep the bounce off the 50 hour SMA going. This would weaken the head and shoulders and traders would then shift their sights to a possible run at the monthly high price point at 1.2349.