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Dollar Challenges the 200 Day SMA

Dollar

Looking at the benchmark USD/JPY Forex market, the dollar hit a five month high at 106.23 on Wednesday. The greenback was supported by better than expected monthly US retail sales data as well as rising Treasury yields.

The dollar then lost ground thanks to profit taking and the USD/JPY currency exchange rate is challenging the two hundred (200) day simple moving average (SMA). With that said, this benchmark currency exchange rate looks constructive while above the fifty and one hundred (50, 100) day simple moving averages.

On Monday, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom will be giving an address to the nation. Financial market participants will be listening closely to his plan regarding how the United Kingdom will exit the latest coronavirus (Covid-19) lockdown.

His plan is likely to be in stages as well as vaccine dependent The British have seemingly turned the corner. Coronavirus infections in the United Kingdom are declining as are hospitalizations, and deaths. Forex traders will also be watching coronavirus statistics from around the world.

Daily US Dollar Technical Analysis (USD/JPY)

The 14 day relative strength index (RSI) on the above USD/JPY daily MT 4 price chart, is signaling overbought. This helped send the US dollar lower during the middle of last week into Friday’s close. There is strong support at both the 200 day simple moving average and 105.50.

The next layer of technical support lines up at the 21 day simple moving average at 104.89/90 yen. The one hundred day simple moving average lines up at 104.40 yen. Forex traders need to watch the 200 day simple moving average closely as it has held during January.

The USD/JPY Forex market has seen a steep climb since breaking above the rising trend channel on 27 January. This Forex market has risen 2.5 percent since then. The first upside barrier to watch lines up at the five month high price point in play at 106.23 yen.

About David Frank

David has his MA and PhD in Economics. He is a technical analyst who has been trading in the Forex world for over a decade. As an analyst and trader, David believes in the big picture by blending together technical analysis with the fundamentals behind the scenes in the Forex and Bond markets. David’s trading strategy is unique. He blends an understanding of fundamental and macroeconomics with technical analysis to offer a unique view into Forex. He applies several strategies including carry long positions, to take advantage of high yields in non-volatile markets, as well as using quicker, chart related analysis for day trading.

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