EUR/USD (1.2658)
- Resistance Levels: 1.2660, 1.2750, 1.2860
- Support Levels: 1.2605, 1.2530, 1.2450
The EUR/USD has formed a hammer candlestick above 1.2605. This is an indicator of a bullish reversal and a hint we could move higher. Should this happen, and it will depend largely on what happen with today’s European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision and policy announcement, then we see short term resistance lining up at 1.2660. A break above this will challenge 1.2750. If we get a get a daily close above 1.2750 to 1.2760 cluster zone, then 1.2860 would be in the cards.
The most likely scenario is that the Euro will continue to lose ground. A close below 1.2605 is very bearish. This will challenge the support level at 1.2530. Daily close below this level opens the doors for 1.2450 and lower.
Our trading strategy from September 30, remains pretty valid. One way to hedge for a gain, especially if you are holding short, is a possible stop loss at 1.3580 will help assure profits with further downside movement. Trading daily, then book profits at the support levels. This way you hedge either way.
The EUR crosses will show consolidation today up until the ECB rate decision and policy statement at 1230 GMT. There is a full calendar of events today which will lead to volatility as the day progresses.