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Canadian Dollar Loses Steam at the 100 HMA

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Looking at the Canadian dollar (CAD) and the above hourly USD/CAD MT 4 price action chart, the greenback has found support at a near term rising trend line, in play since 4 September, as well as the one hundred (100) hour moving average (HMA).

The headline event on the economic calendar for today is the monetary policy and interest rate decision from the European Central Bank. They will also hold their monetary policy press conference after the decision is announced. .As far as economic data is concerned, out of the Eurozone, France and Italy will release monthly industrial production data.

Canada and the United Kingdom have quiet macroeconomic calendars today. The Canadian dollar is likely to pay more attention to U.S. economic data. The world’s largest economy, the United States, will publish monthly factory gate prices. This is the core and headline producer price indices (PPI).

The Labor Department will publish their weekly first time unemployment claims. They will also release their weekly continuing unemployment benefits. The U.S. is also releasing weekly natural gas inventory levels.

Daily Canadian Dollar Technical Analysis (USD/CAD)

Looking at the above price action chart, the USD/CAD currency exchange rate is trying to recovery as the U.S. dollar has finally found its legs. Forex traders should note that the MACD histogram is signaling a bearish trend. This means that this Forex market needs a daily close above 1.32 for a solid run higher.

In this scenario, the next upside barrier lines up at 1.3260 with the July monthly low price in play at 1.3330 then coming into focus.

On the other side of the coin, the first downside barrier of importance is in play at the two hundred (200) hour moving average. This downside barrier is in play at 1.31. The downside barrier lining up, just above the 200 HMA, at 1.3095 is also a level to watch.

The next layer of technical support lines up at 1.3040 with the key level, and former upside barrier, at 1.30 then coming on the radar. A sustained close below this level brings 1.2995 into play.

About David Frank

David has his MA and PhD in Economics. He is a technical analyst who has been trading in the Forex world for over a decade. As an analyst and trader, David believes in the big picture by blending together technical analysis with the fundamentals behind the scenes in the Forex and Bond markets. David’s trading strategy is unique. He blends an understanding of fundamental and macroeconomics with technical analysis to offer a unique view into Forex. He applies several strategies including carry long positions, to take advantage of high yields in non-volatile markets, as well as using quicker, chart related analysis for day trading.

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