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Crude Oil Soars Higher on Supply Weakness

Crude oil

The U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contract is headed into Thursday trading around $83.50 per barrel. This is the highest price level since October 2014. The WTI contract has been climbing over the last several days to a new multi-day high price point on higher demand and low supply concerns.

The latest run up with the U.S. WTI crude oil futures contract comes after the United State reported lower than expected weekly inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Also a weaker U.S. dollar (USD) has been good for commodity prices.

Overnight, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that weekly inventory levels, for the week ending 15 October, in the world’s largest economy came in at below 1.857 million barrels increase on hand. Median forecasts called for 6.088 million barrels and was better than the contraction of 0.431 million barrels seen the week previous.

Also, China, the world’s second largest importer of crude oil has been cracking down on energy production and has been increasing their demand for the black gold.

Overall global demand is rising as economies reopen from coronavirus restrictions and closures. The Organization for Petroleum Export Countries and their non-member allies including Russia (OPEC +) have not drastically increased oil production.

Thursday’s economic calendar is not very busy. In the United States weekly initial and continuing jobless claims will be of interest. The monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve manufacturing index will also be published. Existing monthly home sales numbers will also be released. Canada is also publishing monthly housing price numbers.

Daily Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Looking at the above daily WTI oil futures chart, price action is well above the 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages. These key moving averages line up around $72.05, $71.70 and $66.25 per barrel respectively.  The technical indicators are also trending higher.

On the upside, the November 2012 low price point lines up at $84.10. A daily close above this level brings $85.05 per barrel into focus.

On the downside, there is immediate support lining up at $81.28 before $80 per barrel. The 2018 high price point then lines up at $76.80 per barrel.

About David Frank

David has his MA and PhD in Economics. He is a technical analyst who has been trading in the Forex world for over a decade. As an analyst and trader, David believes in the big picture by blending together technical analysis with the fundamentals behind the scenes in the Forex and Bond markets. David’s trading strategy is unique. He blends an understanding of fundamental and macroeconomics with technical analysis to offer a unique view into Forex. He applies several strategies including carry long positions, to take advantage of high yields in non-volatile markets, as well as using quicker, chart related analysis for day trading.

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