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British Pound Running out of Steam as it inches Higher

British

Looking at the benchmark GBP/USD currency exchange rate, the British pound is still well within a rising trend channel on the above daily MT 4 price action chart. However, the GBP/USD Forex market is losing some steam near a 34 month high price point.

Fundamentally, it is not that the British pound is stronger than the U.S. dollar, it is that the greenback is broadly weak throughout the Forex universe. Last week, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the central bank is committed to a full labor force employment mandate over inflation.

This means that the Federal Reserve is likely to stick with an accommodative monetary policy as well as their large asset purchase program.

Over the weekend, the U.S. Senate, not surprisingly, voted to acquit former President Donald Trump in his role with January’s violent and deadly storming of Capitol Hill. Seven Senate Republicans did vote to convict, however, the vote was well short of that two thirds majority needed.

This week’s economic calendar starts off with a whimper. The financial markets, in the United States are closed for President’s Day on Monday and the United Kingdom has now economic data scheduled for release. This could cause the British pound to drift during the day as trade volume will be low.

Daily British Pound Technical Analysis (GBP/USD)

Looking at the above daily MT 4 price action chart, the GBP/USD Forex market is trading steady in an upwards trend channel. The 14 day relative strength index (RSI), is below seventy (70), outside overbought. This is a good sign for British pound buyers.

The GBP/USD currency exchange rate is also trading above the fifty, one hundred and two hundred (50, 100, 200) day simple moving averages. The first upside barrier to watch lines up at the 2021 high price point of 1.3865.

The next upside barrier lines up at 1.39 with the key round number of 1.40 then coming into play. Further up is 1.4110. Both 1.40 and 1.4110 have not been seen since spring of 2018.

On the downside, support comes into play at the mid-February swing low of 1.3775. The next layer of technical support lines up at the January key upside barrier of 1.37. The February low price point of 1.3565 then becomes a factor.

About David Frank

David has his MA and PhD in Economics. He is a technical analyst who has been trading in the Forex world for over a decade. As an analyst and trader, David believes in the big picture by blending together technical analysis with the fundamentals behind the scenes in the Forex and Bond markets. David’s trading strategy is unique. He blends an understanding of fundamental and macroeconomics with technical analysis to offer a unique view into Forex. He applies several strategies including carry long positions, to take advantage of high yields in non-volatile markets, as well as using quicker, chart related analysis for day trading.

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