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Australian Dollar tries to Recover Losses

Australian

The sentiment linked Australian dollar, last week, edged higher against the almighty U.S. dollar during the back half of the week. The headline AUD/USD currency exchange rate retraced about half of its earlier losses. However, direction remains unclear and the gains are not locked in.

The near-term twenty (20) day simple moving average, on the above daily MT 4 chart is sloping lower. The longer term one hundred and two hundred (100, 200) day simple moving averages appear listless and flattening out.

The economic calendar is also fairly light. Australia has no economic data scheduled for release as the week opens. Both the Australian and U.S. dollars will react to central bank commentary. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members Charles Evans and Randal Quarles are scheduled to give commentary.

As far as economic data is concerned, the United States will publish the Dallas Federal Reserve Board’s monthly manufacturing business index. The European Union will publish monthly import price data and the United Kingdom has no economic data scheduled for release. 

Daily Australian Dollar Technical Analysis (AUD/USD)

Looking at price action on the above AUD/USD Forex chart, the 20 day simple moving average is in play around 0.7710. The longer term moving averages are also below the current price level and the technical indicators have started to tend higher but are still negative.

The Australian dollar has recovered from the 200 day simple moving average but with the bearish slope with the 20 day SMA, sellers could still reenter the AUD/USD market. It is unclear if the technical indicators have the strength to continue the recovery.

 There is immediate technical support in play at 0.7530. A daily close below this level opens the door for the next downside barrier lining up at 0.7460. The next layer of technical support is at 0.7390.

On the upside, initial technical resistance lines up at 0.7620 with the next upside barrier in play at 0.7620. The next layer of technical resistance comes into reach at 0.77.

About David Frank

David has his MA and PhD in Economics. He is a technical analyst who has been trading in the Forex world for over a decade. As an analyst and trader, David believes in the big picture by blending together technical analysis with the fundamentals behind the scenes in the Forex and Bond markets. David’s trading strategy is unique. He blends an understanding of fundamental and macroeconomics with technical analysis to offer a unique view into Forex. He applies several strategies including carry long positions, to take advantage of high yields in non-volatile markets, as well as using quicker, chart related analysis for day trading.

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