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Australian Dollar Consolidates below 0.80


Even though the commodity sensitive Australian dollar, last week, got a small boost from higher U.S. inflation data, the benchmark AUD/USD Forex market remains well below the key psychological upside barrier at 0.80.

The U.S. Federal Reserve views the surge in core and headline consumer prices as transitory. They are unlikely to act anytime soon with their monthly asset purchase program or ultra-accommodative monetary policy.

This ended up causing the greenback to weaken the commodity linked Australian currency remains focused on metal prices, which remain volatile. Also the Australian central bank is not likely to make any moves. This gives the U.S. dollar a small rate advantage.

Even though the Federal Reserve views the spike in prices as transitory, the dollar took a hit as the U.S. central bank is not very likely to taper their monthly asset purchase program or change monetary policy anytime soon. The Federal Reserve feels the U.S. economy has a long road ahead for full employment as well as sustainable two percent inflation.

Monday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will publish their monetary policy monthly meeting minutes. The United States will feature the monthly Empire State manufacturing index. The euro area is releasing key economic growth data.

The European Union will publish their January to April gross domestic product. Japan is also releasing their quarterly gross domestic product. Japan will also publish monthly machine tool orders.

Daily Australian Dollar Technical Analysis (AUD/USD)

Looking at price action on the above AUD/USD daily MT 4 price action chart, the Australian dollar is trading within 0.76 to 0.78. This Forex market has been consolidating in this rage since January and is unlikely to change this week.

There is immediate support lining up at 0.77. A daily close below 0.77 opens the door for the technical support at 0.76. The upside barrier in play at 0.78 has held several times this year.

Neither the fundamentals nor the technical indicators support a rise in this Forex market. This puts the key upside barrier at 0.80 out of reach for the near to medium-term.

About David Frank

David has his MA and PhD in Economics. He is a technical analyst who has been trading in the Forex world for over a decade. As an analyst and trader, David believes in the big picture by blending together technical analysis with the fundamentals behind the scenes in the Forex and Bond markets. David’s trading strategy is unique. He blends an understanding of fundamental and macroeconomics with technical analysis to offer a unique view into Forex. He applies several strategies including carry long positions, to take advantage of high yields in non-volatile markets, as well as using quicker, chart related analysis for day trading.

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