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Euro Looks Weak while Below the 20 Day SMA

euro

Last week, the euro currency fell lower against the U.S. dollar for the second week in a row. Looking at the above daily EUR/USD MT 4 chart, there could be more losses ahead for the world’s most liquid currency exchange rate.

The euro is moving towards the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level that lines up at the start of the January rally. This downside barrier is in play at 1.1885. The EUR/USD Forex market is also below the short-term twenty day moving average.  

Forex traders will be focused on the U.S. Senate passing President Joe Biden’s coronavirus fiscal relief package, worth a massive $1.9 trillion. The Senate vote was 50-49 in favor with all Democrats voting for and all Republicans voting against. The Democratic Party was divided on raising the Federal minimum wage to $15 per hour.

This measure failed. Euro traders are also monitoring U.S. Treasury yields which are rising and making the American dollar more attractive to Forex traders. Monday’s economic calendar is a bit quiet. Germany, the largest economy in the euro area, will publish monthly industrial production numbers.

The United States is releasing monthly wholesale inventory data and the Treasury Department will hold a three month Treasury bill auction. Bank of England Governor William Bailey will be giving commentary, as well.

Daily Euro Technical Analysis (EUR/USD)

Looking at the above daily EUR/USD price chart, the technical indicators are trending lower. The 14 day MACD histogram is below the mid-line and the 14 day relative strength index is around 49. This is near oversold but with strong bearish slopes which could signal more weakness in this Forex market

As the bears open the week in charge along with bearish and oversold technical indicators, the EUR/USD currency exchange rate looks directionless below the 20 day simple moving average. Price action is also below the one hundred (100) day simple moving average.

A daily close below 1.1885 opens the door to challenge the next downside barrier in play at 1.18. The next layer of technical support is at 1.1745. On the upside, a break above 1.1970 brings the next upside barrier at 1.2060 into focus. 

About David Frank

David has his MA and PhD in Economics. He is a technical analyst who has been trading in the Forex world for over a decade. As an analyst and trader, David believes in the big picture by blending together technical analysis with the fundamentals behind the scenes in the Forex and Bond markets. David’s trading strategy is unique. He blends an understanding of fundamental and macroeconomics with technical analysis to offer a unique view into Forex. He applies several strategies including carry long positions, to take advantage of high yields in non-volatile markets, as well as using quicker, chart related analysis for day trading.

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