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Euro Currency Remains well below 1.16 against the Dollar


On Friday, the euro currency ticked higher on weak monthly U.S. labor data. However, the benchmark EUR/USD currency exchange rate was not able to fully take advantage of a broadly weaker U.S. dollar and remains below 1.16.

The monthly U.S. non-farm payroll (NFP) was simply ugly and well below expectations for the second month in a row. However, it will unlikely deter the U.S. central bank from scaling back monthly asset purchases or delaying their timeline for November or December start.

In September, the U.S. added only 194,000 new jobs. This was well below the half million expected. Their unemployment rate also fell. This number fell to 4.8 percent as Americans grew frustrated and left the workforce.

The monthly labor participation rate also fell. This number contracted to 61.6 percent. The economic calendar, for Monday is quiet. The United Kingdom will publish their initial third quarter gross domestic product (GDP).

Daily Euro Currency Technical Analysis (EUR/USD)

Looking at the above daily MT 4 price chart, the euro currency is well below the 20, 100 and 200 day simple moving averages which have downward slopes. The technical indicators also look negative which could signal more losses ahead for the EUR/USD Forex market.

The 20 day simple moving has a strong bearish slope as the euro currency is now consolidating tepid gains made on Friday. With the 20 day simple moving well below the other two moving averages, and the lack of directional direction from the technical indicators, the euro has no real buying interest from Forex traders.  

A daily close below the year low price level at 1.1528 opens the door to challenge a key congestion zone in play at 1.1460 to 1.1470. A sustained close below this area opens the door for 1.1390. On the upside, a close above 1.16 opens the door for 1.1640 then the key level of 1.17.

About David Frank

David has his MA and PhD in Economics. He is a technical analyst who has been trading in the Forex world for over a decade. As an analyst and trader, David believes in the big picture by blending together technical analysis with the fundamentals behind the scenes in the Forex and Bond markets. David’s trading strategy is unique. He blends an understanding of fundamental and macroeconomics with technical analysis to offer a unique view into Forex. He applies several strategies including carry long positions, to take advantage of high yields in non-volatile markets, as well as using quicker, chart related analysis for day trading.

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