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Euro Currency Reclaims Ground back above 1.16


The euro currency has recovered some losses as financial market sentiment has improved. However the shared currency remains on the defensive against the U.S. dollar.

The EUR/USD currency exchange rate is challenging the short-term 21 day simple moving average. However, remains well below the downward sloping one hundred and two hundred (100 200) day simple moving averages.

Despite less than encouraging third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) out of China, the euro currency gained roughly 0.07 percent overnight to 1.1610 and is around 1.1620. The EUR/USD Forex market has reclaimed ground back above 1.16.

The weak third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) out of China coupled with rising consumer and inflationary prices could force their central bank to pause tightening monetary policy. Their third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) printed at 4.9 percent annually.

This was below the five percent expected and the second quarter expansion of 7.9 percent. Industrial output is being weighed down by supply side concerns as well as an energy crunch.  September industrial production was below expectations at 3.1 percent.

Today’s economic calendar is quiet. Bank of England’s governor will be giving remarks as well as several monetary policy members from the European Central Bank (ECB). The United States will release monthly housing starts and monthly building permits numbers. The U.S. is also publishing weekly crude oil inventory data.

Daily Euro Technical Analysis (EUR/USD)                    

Looking at the above daily MT 4 price chart, the 14 day relative strength index is (RSI) inching higher from 44 to the mid-line at fifty. Basically the euro currency is in a range trade from 1.1560 to 1.1620. There is also a possible inverse head-and-shoulders pattern is forming.

There needs to be a daily close above the neckline at 1.1625 to confirm the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. The next upside barrier lines up at 1.17

If the neckline at 1.1625 holds, the EUR/USD Forex market could fall back lower. The first downside level lines up at the 30 September low price point at 1.1562. The 12 October low price point lines up at 1.1525.

About David Frank

David has his MA and PhD in Economics. He is a technical analyst who has been trading in the Forex world for over a decade. As an analyst and trader, David believes in the big picture by blending together technical analysis with the fundamentals behind the scenes in the Forex and Bond markets. David’s trading strategy is unique. He blends an understanding of fundamental and macroeconomics with technical analysis to offer a unique view into Forex. He applies several strategies including carry long positions, to take advantage of high yields in non-volatile markets, as well as using quicker, chart related analysis for day trading.

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