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Euro Currency looks Poised to Move Lower Again


The euro currency saw its highest level of daily gains, on Thursday, since November. As we enter Friday’s trade session, the EUR/USD currency exchange rate has dipped back below the one hundred (100) hour simple moving average.

The EUR/USD Forex market is also trading below 1.1359 and below the two hundred (200) hour simple moving average.

Today’s euro area economic calendar is not very busy. The entire week, macroeconomic data-wise has been quiet. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give commentary.

Germany will publish their monthly producer price index (PPI). The United States will release weekly Baker Hughes crude oil data and monthly building permits.

The United Kingdom will publish their monthly core and headline retail sales data. Canada is publishing their monthly core and headline retail sales data. Canada will also release their monthly housing price index (HPI).

Daily Euro Currency Technical Analysis (EUR/USD)

Looking at the above one hour MT 4 price chart, the relative strength index (RSI) is moving lower and the MACD histogram is signaling a bearish cross. This could allow the bears to challenge the support congestion zone in play at 1.1350 to 1.1348.

This area is where the two day old support line and the 23.6 percent Fibonacci level come into the picture.

A daily close below 1.1348 opens the door for the euro currency to challenge a falling trend line in play since 9 November. This downside barrier lines up at 1.1315. The yearly low price point of 1.1263 then becomes a factor.

On the upside, the EUR/USD Forex market has immediate resistance lining up at 1.1375. The 200 hour simple moving average and fifty percent Fibonacci level converge near 1.1440.

A sustained close above 1.1440 will open the door for the single currency to mount a challenge of the 61.8 percent Fibonacci level. This layer of resistance lines up around 1.1480.

About David Frank

David has his MA and PhD in Economics. He is a technical analyst who has been trading in the Forex world for over a decade. As an analyst and trader, David believes in the big picture by blending together technical analysis with the fundamentals behind the scenes in the Forex and Bond markets. David’s trading strategy is unique. He blends an understanding of fundamental and macroeconomics with technical analysis to offer a unique view into Forex. He applies several strategies including carry long positions, to take advantage of high yields in non-volatile markets, as well as using quicker, chart related analysis for day trading.

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