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Euro Currency Breaks below the Monthly Support

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Looking at the euro currency (EUR) in the world’s most liquid Forex market, the EUR/USD, this key currency exchange rate is currently consolidating around 1.1840.

The euro has broken below the upward sloping trend line that has been in play since 4 November as risk aversion has been switched on. This is benefiting the U.S. dollar over the euro currency.

The EUR/USD Forex market is reacting to a number of factors, the global coronavirus pandemic (Covid-19), Brexit and U.S. and China trade and political drama.

Today, the Eurozone will release their monthly current account. The United States will release their monthly Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index as well as weekly first time jobless claims numbers from the Labor Department. This will also include weekly continuing claims. The United States is also publishing their monthly CB leading index and monthly existing home sales data.

The United Kingdom will publish their monthly CBI industrial orders index and Canada is releasing the monthly private ADP employment change.

Daily Euro Currency Technical Analysis (EUR/USD)

Looking at the above daily EUR/USD MT 4 price chart, the 14 day relative strength index (RSI) is normal around the midline. Now that there had been a break of the monthly support line at the upward sloping trend line, the next downside barrier comes into play at the 21 day simple moving average (SMA).

This layer of technical support lines up at 1.1788. However, before that happens there is a downside layer of technical support at 1.18 that needs to break.

The next layer of technical support line up at the mid-October low price point at 1.1690 and the monthly low price point at 1.16.

On the upside a daily close above the former support turned technical resistance layer at 1.1883 will open the door to challenge the key upside barrier at 1.19. There is an upside congestion zone in play at 1.1920 to 1.1925 that would then come into focus.

About David Frank

David has his MA and PhD in Economics. He is a technical analyst who has been trading in the Forex world for over a decade. As an analyst and trader, David believes in the big picture by blending together technical analysis with the fundamentals behind the scenes in the Forex and Bond markets. David’s trading strategy is unique. He blends an understanding of fundamental and macroeconomics with technical analysis to offer a unique view into Forex. He applies several strategies including carry long positions, to take advantage of high yields in non-volatile markets, as well as using quicker, chart related analysis for day trading.

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