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Dollar Looks Cautious ahead of Key Monthly Jobs Data


The U.S. dollar is trading cautiously against the Canadian currency as we head into Friday. The USD/CAD Forex market is trading in a narrow trade range ahead of key labor numbers being published out of the United States today.

Today, currency traders will be watching labor data out of the United States. The U.S. Labor Department will publish September’s non-farm payroll (NFP) report. Median financial market forecasts are calling for the U.S. to add at least 500,000 new jobs during the month.

The September unemployment rate is expected to fall to 5.1 percent. The world’s largest economy will also release average hourly earnings as well as their monthly labor participation rate.

The euro area’s largest economy will publish monthly trade numbers. Canada is also publishing key labor figures. Canada will publish their monthly employment change and unemployment rate.

Daily U.S. Dollar Technical Analysis (USD/CAD)

Looking at the above daily MT 4 price action chart, the U.S. dollar challenged high price point of 1.2896 on 20 September before coming under selling pressure. The USD/CAD currency exchange rate has been trading between 1.2550 and 1.2540 over the last few days.

The U.S. dollar could now challenge the fifty day simple moving average in play at 1.2630 before the key horizontal support level at 1.25. The next layer of support lines up at the low price level set on 2 August. This level is at 1.2453.

Forex traders should also note that the 14 day MACD histogram looks bearish as does the relative strength index. This could lead to more possible losses in the USD/CAD currency exchange rate before a possible correction higher.

On the upside, there is a key horizontal resistance level in play at 1.2685. The next layer of technical resistance lines up at 1.27 with the 30 September high price point at 1.2765 then coming into the picture.

About David Frank

David has his MA and PhD in Economics. He is a technical analyst who has been trading in the Forex world for over a decade. As an analyst and trader, David believes in the big picture by blending together technical analysis with the fundamentals behind the scenes in the Forex and Bond markets. David’s trading strategy is unique. He blends an understanding of fundamental and macroeconomics with technical analysis to offer a unique view into Forex. He applies several strategies including carry long positions, to take advantage of high yields in non-volatile markets, as well as using quicker, chart related analysis for day trading.

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