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Crude Oil Gains are being Capped at $75 per Barrel

Crude  oil

Despite high demand and a global supply shortage, the U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contract is stalling around $75 per barrel. U.S. black gold is also trading above the 50, 100 and 200 day simple moving averages.

Looking at crude oil economic data, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released weekly U.S. inventory levels, for the week ending 24 September. The contraction was worse than expected as the drawdown was 4.58 million barrels. American inventory is now 418.5 million barrels.

Also, the Joint Technical Committee (JTC) of OPEC said demand for oil and derivatives, especially for heating and electrical generation should increase in Europe and the United Kingdom. Today, the United States will publish weekly initial and continuing jobless claims.

The Chicago purchasing managers’ index will also be published and the U.S. will release quarterly gross domestic product data. The United Kingdom is also publishing quarterly gross domestic product numbers as well as the Nationwide monthly housing price index (HPI).

Germany is releasing monthly labor numbers including their unemployment rate. The European Union is also publishing monthly housing numbers as well as their consumer price index (CPI). Both France and Italy will release their monthly consumer price indices during the day as well.

Daily U.S. WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Looking at the above daily U.S. WTI crude oil MT 4 price chart, price action did challenge the 5 October 2018 high price level of $76.80 but failed to climb higher. U.S. crude is now trading back below $75 per barrel despite global high demand for oil.

This futures contract is now consolidating between $74 and $74.50 per barrel. A daily close above $75 will open the door for multi-year high price points. While below $75 the 28 September low price point at $74.10 per barrel could be challenged first.

The next layer of technical support lines up at $74 per barrel. Traders should also note that the 14 day relative strength index (RSI) is flat which could signal more price consolidation could lie ahead.

About David Frank

David has his MA and PhD in Economics. He is a technical analyst who has been trading in the Forex world for over a decade. As an analyst and trader, David believes in the big picture by blending together technical analysis with the fundamentals behind the scenes in the Forex and Bond markets. David’s trading strategy is unique. He blends an understanding of fundamental and macroeconomics with technical analysis to offer a unique view into Forex. He applies several strategies including carry long positions, to take advantage of high yields in non-volatile markets, as well as using quicker, chart related analysis for day trading.

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