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Australian Dollar Trades below the 100 Day SMA

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Looking at the weekly price action forecast for the AUD/USD currency exchange rate, the Australian dollar is at risk of seeing more losses this week. However, there would need to be a daily close below the April low price point at 0.7531.

Also, Forex traders are watching a bearish head and shoulders chart formation in play on the above daily AUD/USD MT 4 price chart. The near-term twenty (20) day simple moving average is also looking bullish.

However, the Australian dollar is trading below the one hundred (100) day simple moving average, which also has a bearish slope. The two hundred day simple moving average is further down but within reach.

The economic calendar for Monday is not very busy. The United States has a Federal Reserve member giving commentary and Australia has no economic data scheduled for release. The economic calendar out of the United Kingdom is also quiet. The European Union is publishing monthly retail sales data.

The sentiment linked Australian currency will be driven by regional political tensions between China and Taiwan as well as continued clashes in Myanmar. Coronavirus cases in Japan and China are also of interest as well as new Covid-19 cases being seen in New Zealand.

Daily Australian Dollar Technical Analysis (AUD/USD)          

On the above MT 4 price chart, the 14 day relative strength index (RSI) has lost directional strength. The RSI is consolidating around 55. With that said, price action in the AUD/USD Forex market remains skewed lower.

This Forex market remains below the near-term twenty (20) day simple moving average which is in play near the upside congestion zone at 0.7660 to 0.7680. This congestion area also includes the one hundred day simple moving average. Also of concern, for the bulls, are the negative technical indicators which are sloping lower as well.

There is initial downside support at the supply zone in play at 0.7530 to 0.7560. The next downside barrier lines up at 0.7450. On the upside, a daily close above 0.7710 opens the door to challenge 0.7770.

About David Frank

David has his MA and PhD in Economics. He is a technical analyst who has been trading in the Forex world for over a decade. As an analyst and trader, David believes in the big picture by blending together technical analysis with the fundamentals behind the scenes in the Forex and Bond markets. David’s trading strategy is unique. He blends an understanding of fundamental and macroeconomics with technical analysis to offer a unique view into Forex. He applies several strategies including carry long positions, to take advantage of high yields in non-volatile markets, as well as using quicker, chart related analysis for day trading.

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