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Australian Dollar Trades around its Weekly Low


The Australian dollar is trading near its weekly low against the safe haven Japanese yen. The AUD/JPY Forex pair has fallen below 82.42 and is below the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level. We are seeing this currency pair trade below its three day low price point, as well.

As far as economic data is concerned, Australia retail sales did come in better than expected for November. Median forecasts called for a gain of 2.5 percent. Retail sales came in at 4.5 percent which was well above the October number of 1.3 percent.

The rest of the economic calendar is sparse on Friday. Most of the financial markets are closed in the United States which will mean light trade volume for the Forex world during North American trade hours.

The euro area has very little scheduled. Germany will publish their monthly import price index. France and Italy will release monthly consumer confidence surveys.

The United Kingdom has no top tier economic data scheduled for publication on Friday. Forex traders will be watching headlines between Britain and France over migrants.

Both blame the other over a deadly accident, which killed 27, in the English Channel. This could benefit safe haven assets like the Japanese yen. Canada will publish their monthly budget balance.

Daily Australian Dollar Technical Analysis

Looking at the above four hour MT 4 price chart, the Australian dollar is facing selling pressure while under the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level. The technical indicators also do not look favorable which could lead to more losses for the AUD/JPY Forex market.

On the downside, a daily close below the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level near 82.30, opens the door to challenge the support level in play at 81.25. The next layer of support lines up at October’s monthly low at 79.90.

While below 83.10, a correction higher remains difficult to imagine. This is where the fifty (50) Fibonacci retracement level and 50 hour simple moving average converge. The next upside barrier lines up near 84.15 with 84.20 then coming into focus

About David Frank

David has his MA and PhD in Economics. He is a technical analyst who has been trading in the Forex world for over a decade. As an analyst and trader, David believes in the big picture by blending together technical analysis with the fundamentals behind the scenes in the Forex and Bond markets. David’s trading strategy is unique. He blends an understanding of fundamental and macroeconomics with technical analysis to offer a unique view into Forex. He applies several strategies including carry long positions, to take advantage of high yields in non-volatile markets, as well as using quicker, chart related analysis for day trading.

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