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Australian Dollar Loses Ground after Economic Data

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Looking at the benchmark AUD/JPY currency exchange rate and above daily MT 4 price action chart, the Australian dollar (AUD) fell to 76.35 after weaker than expected Chinese inflation data was released during the Asian trade session.

The Australian dollar often acts like a liquid proxy to economic data out of China due to the amount of trade done with the world’s second largest economy.

Heading into the overnight trade session, Australia is not publishing any economic data. This means the sentiment linked Australian dollar will look elsewhere for price action cues.  Japan is releasing economic data but Forex traders should keep in mind that, as usual, this data should not affect the Japanese yen as the Bank of Japan is not very likely to change their monetary policy or rates anytime soon.

Japan will publish their annual preliminary machine tool orders as well as their monthly core machinery tool orders. The world third largest economy will also release their annual factory gate prices, or producer price index (PPI).

The European Union has quite a bit of economic data scheduled for release during the day on Tuesday. Italy and France will both publish monthly industrial production data. The Eurozone and the largest economy in the euro area, Germany, will release monthly private ZEW economic sentiment surveys. The United Kingdom is releasing labor data.

This data includes their monthly claimant count change as well as their unemployment rate. The United Kingdom is also publishing hourly earnings and the private monthly BRC retail sales monitor will be published.

Daily Australian Dollar Technical Analysis (AUD/JPY)

Looking at the above daily MT 4 price chart, the 14 day relative strength index has pulled back from overbought levels but the failure of the AUD/JPY Forex market to break above the monthly high price chart indicates possible weakness.

With that said the first downside barrier in play at 76.00 is the immediate layer of support to monitor. The next downside barrier is at a rising trend line in play at 2 November is the next level to watch. This is in play at 75.45. The two hundred (200) hourly moving average at 74.95 then comes into focus.

On the upside, the October higher price point at 76.50 is the first layer of technical resistance with 77.05 the coming into play. The next upside barrier is the 10 September high price point at 77.72 with the 31 August high price point at 78.45 then coming into play.

About David Frank

David has his MA and PhD in Economics. He is a technical analyst who has been trading in the Forex world for over a decade. As an analyst and trader, David believes in the big picture by blending together technical analysis with the fundamentals behind the scenes in the Forex and Bond markets. David’s trading strategy is unique. He blends an understanding of fundamental and macroeconomics with technical analysis to offer a unique view into Forex. He applies several strategies including carry long positions, to take advantage of high yields in non-volatile markets, as well as using quicker, chart related analysis for day trading.

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