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Australian Dollar is Stuck in Neutral vs the Greenback

Australian

The sentiment and commodity linked Australian dollar is set to open this week in neutral against the U.S. dollar. Last week, the greenback whipsawed a bit.

The U.S. dollar was in demand thanks to labor data on Wednesday, then weakened on a mixed non-farm payroll report on Friday.

The AUD/USD currency exchange rate is trading around the short-term twenty (20) day simple moving average. The longer term moving averages are below the 20 day SMA and looking directionless.

Last week, U.S. labor data was in focus. On Wednesday, the private ADP non-farm unemployment change for May came in stronger than expected at 978,000 new jobs.

Also published on Wednesday, offal weekly initial jobless claims, for the last week in May, fell below 400,000. The monthly non-farm payroll report was a bit of a disappointment coming in below expectations.

The Federal Reserve also announced the end of some of their pandemic era monetary policy support programs. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said it was time to think about tapering. Monday’s economic calendar is fairly light.

Australia’s ANZ bank will publish their monthly job advertisements. Germany is publishing monthly industrial production data. The euro area will release the Sentix monthly economic sentiment index.

Daily Australian Dollar Technical Analysis (AUD/USD)

Looking at the above daily AUD/USD MT 4 chart, the technical indicators are lacking any directional signals as the Australian dollar should open the week trading sideways as they are moving around their mid-lines. The AUD/USD Forex market is also struggling around key daily simple moving averages.

The Australian dollar is also struggling to break above a falling trend line in play from the May high price point. Initial technical support lines up at the weekly low price point at 0.7645.

A daily close below this level brings the yearly low price point at 0.7530 into focus. On the upside, there is a congestion zone in play at 0.7770 to 0.7780. The next upside barrier lines up at 0.7820 with the round number of 0.79 then coming into play.

About David Frank

David has his MA and PhD in Economics. He is a technical analyst who has been trading in the Forex world for over a decade. As an analyst and trader, David believes in the big picture by blending together technical analysis with the fundamentals behind the scenes in the Forex and Bond markets. David’s trading strategy is unique. He blends an understanding of fundamental and macroeconomics with technical analysis to offer a unique view into Forex. He applies several strategies including carry long positions, to take advantage of high yields in non-volatile markets, as well as using quicker, chart related analysis for day trading.

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